What is Rugby?

This weekend kicks off the 2010 Six Nations Championship with a strong Irish team looking to defend their Grand Slam from last year, with England, Scotland, Wales and France eager to dethrone them. For me, the focus of this tournament is England. After a forgettable Fall test series, England more so than any other country is feeling the pressure to perform well in this tournament.

Wales seem to be in a bit of a limbo at the moment with some claiming a lack of identity and psychological soundness within the squad. Scotland are aiming to have a better appearance than they did in 2009 and will use some promising and encouraging Fall test matches as the base work.

France will be eying a key match up with Ireland in Paris during week 2 of the tournament and hope that their recent representation of 4 teams in the Heinekin Cup will be a sign of things to come for the French. Italy once again hopes to not be handed the wooden spoon, which is about all they have to hope for with the other five nations having much stronger sides. With that, lets begin our analysis with the most intriguing match up of the weekend.

England v. Wales:

I’ll be frank: Martin Johnson’s job is on the line. All eyes will be on the iconic 2003 World Cup winner who now leads the English premier side. Many have questioned Johnson’s ability to manage the English side due to a lack of experience or perhaps Johnno’s legend is getting in the way. Either way, a poor performance during this Championship could lead to a change of management as the RFU is running out of time if it wants to properly prepare for the 2011 World Cup.

Playing the Welsh at Twickenham should be an advantage for England but, after being emphatically booed during several of their Fall test matches, the crowd will turn on them quickly if England do not come out firing on all cylinders.

For England to have a chance against Wales, they need to score tries. This has been an elusive task for England lately (1 try in 3 Fall test matches) and there is no doubt that their typical slow, ‘pound and ground’ style of rugby will show them an early exit from title contention. With young, blossoming players such as Delon Armitage, Ugo Moyne and Riki Flutey, it’s time for England to unleash the speed. With a very poor showing by the Premiership teams in the Heinekin Cup, this is it for Martin Johnson, it’s now or never.

Wales also need to win this match to make a strong opening statement that they have not faded away since their Grand Slam triumph in 2008. The Welshmen need to rediscover their identity here, which for me is the staunch defense they became so famous for. However, a very disappointing Fall test series casts a shadow on their ability to regain their form.

The return of Lee Byrne following his successful appeal of a 2 week suspension should give the Welsh a boost as will the drawing of three matches at home, including their match against France. Wales have to be very concerned though after just recently losing 2/3 of the starting front row, which also happens to be 2/3 of the starting 2009 British and Irish Lions starting front row. All-world prop Gethin Jenkins and Matthew Rees will both be sidelined with injuries, a massive blow, more so with the loss of Jenkins whose work rate in the loose is second to none.

The bottom line is this. Whomever loses this match can kiss the tournament goodbye. That may seem extreme, but given the state of both sides, I think an opening round loss would be devastating and would shake their confidence.

In the end, I like England in this match. I was encouraged by Johnson’s line up (with the exception of Matthew Tait) and the fact that they are home. England is the more desperate team here and as I do in all sports, I always go with the desperate side. They’re always willing to do a little more than the other team.

France v. Scotland:

I’m going to apply one of the all time great movie quotes here:

“France are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.”

One week we watch France handily defeat the defending World Champion Springboks. The next week, they’re embarassed at home by New Zealand.

Quite simply, France needs a confident over the Scots. After losing to Ireland and being man handled by England last year, France has a lot to prove. They have some questions at the fly half position that need to be answered or it could turn out to be their Achilles heel for the tournament.

Something tells me that maybe they are a bit thin at certain positions, a feeling that was only exaccerbated by the inclusion of estranged centre Mathieu Bastareaud. I’m personally most intrigued by this match because, as an Irish supporter, I’m curious to see what’s ahead of Ireland this week.

Scotland I think can play spoiler in this match after getting somewhat of a chip on their shoulder with their strong Fall test performances.

Scotland as a country have gained some respectability with their play at the club level in the Heinekin Cup and appear to have a new sense of pride, no doubt in part to new manager Andy Robinson.

The Evans brothers showed a great deal of promise at last years tournament and the return of Sean Lamont will be very intertesting. Chris Patterson will receive his 99th cap in this test and after being excluded for much of the 2009 Championship, will be keen on maintaining his starting spot in the Scottish roster.

While I like what Scotland has been doing recently and the thought of them playing spoiler against the French is nothing short of a dream, I don’t see it happening. France are once again playing that wide-open, expansive game we’ve all grown to love them for and while Scotland’s back three are impressive in their own rights, I think France scores at least 5 tries in this one.

Ireland v. Italy:

What’s there to say about this match? On paper and in reality, Italy has no chance of even sniffing victory in this one. The Italians are in a state of flux at the moment and given their history against Ireland in the Championship, the Azzurri are going to have it tough against the Irish. Throw in the absence of world class 8-man and Italian captain Sergio Parisse, and things only get bleaker.

I’ve entertained the ‘let down theory’ with Ireland looking ahead to their match up in Paris against the French, but I just don’t see Ireland losing focus in this one. Often times after a team in any sport has won a championship, complacency and a lack of focus is sometimes brought up. In some cases, a team can lose that hunger for silverware once they’ve acheived it.

Brian O’Driscoll addressed this thought before the media could even launch into questioning Ireland’s desire, ability tom handle pressure and focus by defending his sides hunger to retain their title and build on what they have acheived. One only needs to look back at Ireland’s Autumn test matches to answer the focus question where Ireland showed more composure and focus than any other nation during the fall.

There is also the 2011 Rugby World Cup looming, no doubt a thought in the player’s and Declan Kidney’s mind when approaching this years 6 Nations. I for one have no doubts that Ireland are as focused as ever and are hungry to win back to back Grand Slam titles for the first time in Irish history. They have an 11 match win streak and must be intensely motivated to extend this further. Even Keith Wood, the former Irish captain who’s never shyed away from criticizing the Irish, believes they can repeat.

All of that aside though, I think it’s important for Ireland to run up a large score on the Italians. France are very keen on exacting some revenge on Ireland in Paris during week 2 of the tournament, so I think it’s important to make a statement in this match by unleashing to me, the best back line in the world. One could argue that the Italian front row could give the Irish some troubles because of the size advantage. The case was the same with South Africa though and I thought Ireland more than held their ground.

This is a great match for Ireland to begin their campaign for another title and despite Jamie Heaslip’s concerns about some Italian backlash, I don’t see this match being close.