What is Rugby?

As regular contributors to The Rugby Blog here at WhatIsRugby.com, Josh and I often debate back and forth the merits (or lack there of) of the prevailing match, tournament, new player, or really any piece of minutia even remotely related to rugby. We usually do this online or at the pub, or in the comments after one of us has published an new blog article. However, we make history this year by releasing our 2009 Lions selections. We’ve waited until the very last minute (the official squad is announced in less than 24 hours) so that we can claim to be the final Lions predictions for the 2009 Tour. That’s not something you hear every day!

We’ve prefaced our selections with a little point-counterpoint to whet the appetite and put our selections in perspective. Enjoy!

1. Which position(s) are going to have the most competition for a spot on the tour? Who ultimately prevails for the spot on the first XV?

Josh: For me the obvious position that will see the most competition for the starting spot is fullback. The debate between selecting Lee Byrne and Rob Kearney has been a hotly contested one since the beginning of the year. Both bring the same set of skills to the position, huge boot, strong, aggressive and a serious attacking threat. The final 6 Nations match up was not only supposed to decide the tournament and whether Ireland would win a Grand Slam after 61 years, it was also Lee Byrne v. Rob Kearney for the #15 shirt. Unfortunately, Lee Byrne left the match early with an injury, now leaving him in doubt to play at all on the Lions tour and Rob Kearney had an off day. Throw Delon Armitage into the mix who came on late in the tournament and it’s an even more interesting contest. In the end though, give me Rob Kearney. He’s a little bigger than Byrne and perhaps a better attacking option. Armitage deserves to make the tour, but probably won’t unless Byrne is held back due to injury. His boot isn’t near what Byrne and Kearney bring to the table either, which is what should really be the point of focus for this tour.

The wing should also pose a difficult selection for Ian McGeechan with quite a few viable options. Really though there is only one wing that needs to be decided because there is no way, despite his poor 6 Nations showing, that Shane Williams is left out of the first XV. He is far too dangerous on the attack and is one of the few game breakers on the squad. He’s the guy who can break a game open with his speed and knack for shooting the gaps. He’s the one guy on the Lions who can outrun Bryan Habana. On the other wing though you have Luke Fitzgerald, Tommy Bowe, Paul Sackey, Simon Danielli and throw in Thom Evans into the mix as well. Sackey didn’t have a good tournament, but has the benefit of being seen on a regular basis domestically by Lions manager Ian McGeechan. Still, I don’t see him in the first XV and is even a long shot to make the squad period. Simon Danielli had some good moments in the 6 Nations but will ultimately be held back mostly due to playing on a dreadful Scotland team. In the end I see Fitzgerald and Evans traveling with the Lions, but the starting spot will go to Tommy Bowe. His combination of size and speed is what the Lions need. A big imposing wing who can break tackles and provide solid defense. Bowe flashed moments of brilliance in the 6 Nations, scoring a few impressive tries. He’s a player who could run over the South African wingers providing a potential mismatch for the Lions.

Fly half is a very difficult choice between Ronan O’Gara and Stephen Jones. O’Gara when he is on, is the better kicker. The problem is that he occasionally, if not rarely, he has terrible matches where his kicking is a disaster. Stephen Jones is much bigger and more physical than O’Gara, something to consider for this tour. Jones provides a decent attacking option at fly half, something you do not get from O’Gara. I could see Butch James harassing O’Gara to try and intimidate him, a tactic I’ve seen James often employ. That could be a problem for O’Gara although Wales tried a similar move in the 6 Nations finale and O’Gara remained unfettered throughout the match, playing one of his best games of the tournament. In the end, I’d have to go with Stephen Jones purely for the physical aspect. He’s an excellent kicker not conceding much to O’Gara. I expect Mike Phillips to take the half back shirt, making Jones an even better selection.

Vic: While 10 and 15 may be hotly contested, both positions lack depth in terms of available players as I discuss below in depth. However, Byrne and Kearney both put me to sleep during the Six Nations. Armitage on the other hand had a cracker. He’s only been around for a year and is only 2 points shy of Byrnes’ total career point total. And don’t forget that Armitage scored his first international points with a 45-meter drop goal against Australia. Armitage also scored tries against Ireland and Wales (and France) in the 2009 championship. Lee Byrne has made an impressive try scoring return from injury in his club fixture with the Ospreys but remains an injury scare for selectors.

2. Who is going to claim the captaincy for this years Lions tour?

Vic: I think it’s pretty clear that O’Driscoll has wrapped up the captaincy this year. He played an outstanding 6 Nations after a ho-hum 2007/2008, and led by example on the pitch. He guided the Irish to a historic Grand Slam over the tournament favored Welsh.

Aside from his own accomplishments, there are only maybe one or two other viable options. Scotland and England are wayward ships at the moment and have not one viable contender. While Welsh captain Ryan Jones is a great leader, the defeat to Ireland and their inability to adapt to Ireland’s improved defense will cost him. Ireland also have a number of other players who could lead the Lions (namely O’Connell, Wallace and Heaslip), but O’Driscoll easily overshadows them. It would be a massive insult to let anyone from the Irish squad other than O’Driscoll to captain the Lions.

Josh: While I think O’Driscol is the frontrunner for the Lions captaincy, I would hardly say that he’s a shoe-in or that naming another Irish player would be an insult. O’Driscoll clearly was the best player in the 6 Nations and is largely responsible for Leinster being in the semi-finals (although he’s not the captain of Leinster anymore, we still know who’s voice holds sway with that team). So while my vote goes to BOD, I think Ian McGeechan will select Paul O’Connell as his captain.

I think that McGeechan is going to have flashbacks of the 1997 Lions tour to South Africa when Martin Johnson led his team to victory over the Boks. O’Connell is less experienced than O’Driscoll as a captain at the test level, but he’s been the foundation of an extremely successful Munster squad over the years that appears to be on their way to another European Championship. If the Lions are going to beat the Boks, it’s going to be won in the pack. Based on that, the captain should be up in the pack. It’s not like O’Connell is any kind of a downgrade from O’Driscoll either. For me, O’Connell was the 2nd runner up for 6 Nations man of the tournament behind O’Driscoll and Italy 8-man Sergio Parisse. Other than O’Connell and O’Driscoll, there’s no one else in my mind that is within earshot of the captaincy. Welsh captain Ryan Jones was an early favorite but he had an abysmal 6 Nations and just saw his club team, the Ospreys, get annihilated by the O’Connell led Munster squad.

3. Which player would you say is already wearing his number in the Lions XV?

Josh: Not a real difficult question here. Without a doubt, the one man who can make his reservations for the tour is Paul O’Connell. O’Connell is an absolute monster in the lineout, which is exactly what the Lions need. O’Connell stole 6 lineouts from Wales in the final match and comes up big in every match he plays. He carries the ball more than anyone on the Irish squad and is as fierce a tackler as they come.

Despite the center position itself being a little thin in terms of options, this is another easy one. Regardless, it wouldn’t matter much because Brian O’Driscoll played out of his mind in the 6 Nations putting all doubters to rest questioning his form. Scoring 4 tries, hitting one drop goal and providing that stout defense that initially brought him to fame put his name on the #13 shirt for the Lions. Factor in all the big match experience and leadership he has, O’Driscoll is an easy selection.

One more I would say that has a firm grip on his spot is Gethin Jenkins playing at loose head prop. Jenkins was in top form throughout the 6 Nations tournament, proving himself as a stout defender who made tackle after tackle, never slowing down. There’s not much competition in the front row as it is, so Jenkins is a favorite for me here. The front row is where the Lions can actually gain some advantage over the Boks and Jenkins at least solidifies one side of the scrum.

Vic: Since you hung your hat on two Irishmen, I feel duty-bound to counter with the Welsh-duo of Shane Williams and Michael Phillips. They’ve had this nailed down before the Six Nations (as you noted above). Williams has the speed and experience. Phillips is just massive at scrum half and will eat DuPreez for lunch.

As far as Jenkins is concerned in the front row, he appears to be a favorite in the English media, but don’t forget the rumors of Vickery for the Lions captaincy. I see Vickery over Jenkins as the upset of the roster.

4. What position(s) is a weakness for the Lions selections in terms of available players to select? Who ultimately prevails for the spot on the first XV?

Vic: The biggest weaknesses are at both the ends of the lineup and right in the middle. At the front, the pool of front-rowers that can compete with the Boks is thin. In the 2009 Six Nations, none of the teams seemed overly dominant in the front row. In addition, the top teams played a more open, expansive style preventing the showdowns we might have expected from past championships. This bad situation will be made worse given the bind-and-grind style we can expect from the South Africans. At the end of the day, someone will have to lock horns with the Boks up front. I think Flannery and Murray are pretty likely. The third spot is a toss-up for me, either Vickery or Gethin Jenkins.

At the end of the line-up, we have not seen much inspiration at 15. Despite the poor performance of the English squad during the 6 Nations, Armitage was a standout in his fixtures and should get the nod over popular favorites such as Lee Byrne. I don’t expect the South Africans to attack much at this position, but Armitage is up to the challenge.

Finally, I think the largest weakness is at #10. Even at their best, none of the 6 Nations fly halves has the type of “disruptive technology” required to pin and punish the Boks on home soil. Despite talk of surprise selections like Nicky Robinson (Cardiff Blues) and Danny Cipriani (London Wasps), this horse race comes down to a choice between O’Gara and Jones. Both are in great form despite a few wayward penalties by Jones in the 6 Nations final. Ultimately though, you have to give the mantle to the architect of the Grand Slam trophy, Ronan O’Gara.

Josh: While I agree that the selection pool for front row players is a little thin, I don’t really view it as much of a weakness because the South African front row is nothing to write home about. I think Gethin Jenkins is a shoe in for loose head prop and will be vital to the Lions scrum and in loose play. Jerry Flannery will probably get the nod simply for his throwing ability in the lineout and because he’s pretty good in the loose. At the other prop, Euan Murray will probably get the nod for the sole reason that McGeechan will want to have at least one Scot in the first XV (I honestly can’t see any other Scot making it).

At the fullback position I couldn’t disagree more, but I’ve covered this in question #1 so I’ll spare everyone the redundancy.

I also disagree that fly half is a weakness for the Lions. I think Stephen Jones and Ronan O’Gara are terrific options at #10, making it a difficult choice between the two. They both are excellent penalty kickers, but O’Gara when he’s on is the best. O’Gara also is also dangerous at directional kicking and finding touch. I have to disagree when you say neither has the “disruptive technology” to pin and punish the Boks. Jones is more physical and hence a better defending and attacking option. But lets face it, the ultimate decision on who starts at #10 will be based on who’s the better kicker. I don’t think McGeechan will be looking towards the fly half to serve as an attacking option.

5. What do the Lions have to do to repeat the success of 1997?

Josh: Be physical. The Lions have to match the physicality that South Africa brings to the pitch or they will find themselves getting pounded. The South Africans are a very physical side and no doubt will do all they can to try and intimidate the Lions. Many have questioned the overall strength of the Boks after an abysmal performance in the Tri-Nations, so I expect them to come out very intent on sending the Lions packing.

The Lions also need to be strong in the lineout both on the attack and defense. Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha make up arguably the best lineout tandem in the world and will surely be a difficult pair to out maneuver in the lineout. The way Paul O’Connell has been in the lineout gives me confidence that the Lions can compete with the Boks, but of course he’s only one component of the lineout. For this reason alone I think McGeechan must select Jerry Flannery at hooker simply for his throwing ability and obvious chemistry with O’Connell.

Leadership is going to be key here as well because you are going to have a lot of new blood playing with the Lions and it will be very easy for them to get caught up in the tour atmosphere and get sucked into mind games that the Boks will surely play to try and intimidate and rattle the Lions. Leadership from the captain is not going to be good enough for this tour, the other seasoned players need to set the standard as well and lead by example.

South Africa are going to keep the ball in the forwards and try and pound and ground their way down the pitch and then swing it out to the backs when the time is right. Fourie DuPreez in my opinion is the finest half back in the world and will do an excellent job of managing phase play. Master defense coach Shaun Edwards needs to be a drill instructor for the Lions, preaching discipline and strong counter rucking. I’m confident he can do this and expect the Lions to have a very successful tour to the Republic of South Africa.

Vic: Let’s not mince words here: the Lions face an uphill battle. We are a long way into the professional era to draw too much inspiration from a few wins a decade ago against a nation reeling in political upheaval. However, the Irish and Welsh core of the Lions squad have shown that they can overcome the plodding monotony of the English (and South African) style. So what’s the key to the opening the Springbok puzzle? Cohesiveness. Specifically through a massive defensive showing. This will be the foundation for any success the Lions experience on tour. Ireland and Wales have really focused on defense over the past 18 months, so we’ll see if that pays off on tour.

The other area that the Lions need to watch closely is infractions in the contact areas. This was a big problem in the 2009 Six Nations in general and the presence of Botha, Matfield and Burger will frustrate and provoke the visitors. Clearly, cool heads and smart play at the breakdowns will be essential. If the Boks get even a small lead, they will shut down their attack, circle the wagons around the ball and kick for territory all day. The Lions have no answer for overcoming a deficit, and this seemingly small area of the game could be their downfall even if they do everything else brilliantly.

So without further delay, here are our predictions for the 2009 Lions Tour to South Africa: