Dispelling The All Black Myth
As I’ve discussed previously, the New Zealand All Blacks have begun to show signs of trouble that are no doubt worrying to their countrymen and fans alike as the 2007 Rugby World Cup approaches. Today, the Australian Wallabies officially exposed the All Black weaknesses as they captured a come-from-behind win in Melbourne and snapped a 5-match losing streak against their opponents (BBC, Reuters).
In typical fashion, the All Blacks started the match with extreme prejudice and hammered the ball over the try line to take the lead early on. However, numerous errors by both teams resulted in spastic play and collared the half-time score to just 15-6 for the visitors. In particular, All Black fly-half Dan Carter continued his growing habit of poor penalty kicking and extended his errors by putting at least 2 kicks into touch ‘on-the-full’.
The second-half was an entirely different match for Australia. While they continued to be dominated in the scrummages by New Zealand, fly-half Stephen Larkham and centre Sterling Mortlock sliced through the opposition backline creating numerous scoring opportunities. New Zealand, playing a man short following a yellow card, finally gave up 2 converted, unanswered tries for the Wallabies to take the lead late in the match, 20-15.
The final minutes of the match were rather pedestrian as Australia kept the ball up front to retain possession. However, when referee awarded the All Blacks a late advantage which pushed the match well past the full-time ‘hooter’. However, New Zealand were unable to penetrate the home team defense.
At this moment, the best team on the planet seemed ordinary and out of ideas. Dan Carter, instead of trying to orchestrate some of the late-game All Black magic to which we have all become accustomed, was lurking on the wing with the ball in the middle of the pitch. Bizarre behavior indeed for one of the best players in the world. Perhaps the All Blacks are not that mythical afterall.
(On Jul 3rd, 2007 at 1:44 pm)
While there may be signs of trouble, the fact is that New Zealand should still enter the RWC as fairly overwhelming favorites to win. Although, they do have a number of fairly easily identifiable weaknesses (poor lineout exacerbated by a number of injured top-choice locks, the center pairings, Dan Carter’s lack of form), an examination of the top 10 teams reveals that there are probably not too many teams with the ability to beat them in France.
The #2-10 rankers include (in order), France, SA, Australia, Ireland, Argentina, England, Wales, Italy, and Samoa. Surprisingly out of the top 10, Scotland sits at 11. Realistically, from #7 down (starting with a terrible English team), none of the teams have a chance. Argentina and Ireland have NEVER beaten the All Blacks, even at home.
Australia, while winners of the last match, would still be the underdogs, especially considering neutral territory. If they are not paired with a ref that allows George Gregan to avoid putting into a scrum for half an hour (that first put-in resulted in a tight head), Australia will have much difficulty in seeing enough ball to take advantage of whatever center pairing NZ will fields.
Perhaps the team with the best chance of defeating NZ, South Africa, is dealing with a number of crucial injuries. Also important, none of their top 22 will see international match play for quite some time, perhaps even until the RWC because of Jake White’s decision to rest his players during the Tri-Nations. It should also be noted that South Africa has had much trouble in recent years away from home.
While I like watching the French play, their recent match history shows a number of blowout losses within the last 2 to 3 years. Although they are number two, their form has been fairly spotty and considering their recent record against Argentina, it would not be a total shock to see them fail to emerge from the pool stages.
I feel like I should clarify by saying that I don’t support New Zealand. However, although they have had a number of pretty uninspiring performances in the last couple of months, they should still be regarded as the favorites by a decent margin, myth or no myth.
(On Jul 3rd, 2007 at 2:19 pm)
My feeling is that the French will rise to the challenge on home-turf. Count on them or RSA to beat the All blacks in the world cup.
(On Jul 10th, 2007 at 7:00 pm)
Be Careful Guru… New Zealand is still the team to beat.
Congrats to Australia for an impressive victory. They played well, showed they are fit to play at a high level for 80 minutes, and capitalized on a SH substitution and a yellow card given to the tight head prop.
Looking forward to the RWC…
(On Jul 11th, 2007 at 8:40 am)
I’ll tell you what’s going to happen to the All Blacks and this is something that transcends throughout the entire pro sports world. NZ in my opinion is in the weakest bracket in the World Cup, so no questions they will sail through into the quarterfinals.
But that is exactly the problem. High caliber teams such as the All Blacks historically “shit the bed” when they are not tested early. This has happened to many pro sports teams where they face an unchallenging opponent and then go into the next round with a lax attitude and lose because their intensity is down.
Mark my words, NZ will go down in the quarterfinals. As much as I’d like to preach that Ireland will win the World Cup, based on what I’ve seen from RSA, they will be the 2007 Webb Ellis Cup winners.